Chapter 64

Testing our Beliefs and Knowledge 

 

If true and factual knowledge is critical to our survival, how do we discover it? While 100% certainty is not possible in any area of knowledge, 95% is high enough to allow us to act decisively with confidence in most situations. Hunches and intuition have a spotty record for accuracy, as do religious and philosophical dogma. Anecdotes are appealing and persuasive to our brains, but alone, they don’t prove an assertion. That leaves us with several reasonable options. Let’s start with a critical one that has led to much of our understanding of the natural world – the scientific method. 

The Scientific Method 

The term “scientific method” was first used in the 19th century, but the principles were developed over centuries by such luminaries as Epicurus, Roger Bacon, and René Descartes. While there are some variations, the following is a fair description of how it is generally applied today. 

  • Observation and Questioning: Someone notices something with their senses or instruments (like a microscope) and is curious. Questions are formalized. Example: Doctors notice that a South American plant lowers the blood pressure of some indigenous animals. They wonder if it can have the same effect on humans.
  • Formulating a Hypothesis: This is an educated guess or proposed explanation based on the observation. A good hypothesis must be testable and falsifiable (able to be shown to be incorrect). Example: If patients with high blood pressure ingest this plant, their BP values will improve compared to a placebo.
  • Experimentation: Experiments should be repeatable and produce consistent results. Example: Researchers design a double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial.
  • Data Collection and Analysis: Scientists gather descriptive or numerical data as the experiment is conducted. Example: BP readings are taken before and after treatment. The results show the plant has a beneficial impact with few side effects.
  • Drawing Conclusions: If the hypothesis is supported by the evidence, that could be another brick in a larger foundation of scientific knowledge. However, disproving a hypothesis is as useful as proving one. In this example, the hypothesis is supported.
  • Communication and Peer Review: With a conclusion in hand, the scientist must share their findings with the larger scientific community. Peer review, while at times painful, is critical to the method. It helps guard against error and bias. Example: Results are published in a peer-reviewed medical journal and submitted to regulatory bodies for drug approval. 

Here is a partial list of scientific knowledge we can have a high degree of confidence in because of scientific method testing: Evolution, human-caused climate change, cell theory, germ theory of disease, atomic theory, quantum theory, plate tectonics, general and special relativity, laws of thermodynamics, and the theory of electromagnetism. In these cases, the scientific method has been so rigorously applied over decades that these theories are now considered established scientific facts. 

When individuals or groups challenge any of the aforementioned theories (often based on conflicting belief systems), supporters of the theory are pleased to have them conduct their own tests to disprove it. However, citing metaphysical beliefs will hardly be persuasive. (See Chapter 16 - The Proximity Factor.) Sometimes the knowledge is uncomfortable and/or inconvenient. But I would not suggest jumping naked off a tall building to counter the theory of gravity. 

Other Methods 

What about knowledge that can’t be directly tested? These would include:

  • Moral claims (“Is it wrong to lie?”)
  • Aesthetic judgments (“Is Beethoven’s music beautiful?”)
  • Metaphysical claims (“Does heaven exist?”)
  • Historical one-time events (“Did Oswald assassinate JFK?”)
  • Subjective experiences (“My aching knee means it will rain tomorrow.”)
  • Phenomena that cannot be isolated, controlled, or measured (“Humans possess Free Will”)

Below are six major alternative methods humans can use to establish truth or knowledge – each with their own strengths and pitfalls:

1. Logical and Philosophical Reasoning (Rationalism)

  • These methods are used for mathematics, ethics, metaphysics, and thought experiments. 
  • Truths are discovered by deduction, formal logic, and conceptual analysis. 
  • Example: You cannot experimentally prove 1+1=2. It is derived logically.
  • Strength: Internally consistent, rigorous
  • Weakness: Not tied to empirical reality unless combined with observation 

2. Intuition and Insight

  • Humans sometimes grasp truths immediately, non-verbally, and without step-by-step reasoning.
  • These methods are used in creativity, moral judgment, artistic inspiration, social understanding, and first impressions
  • Intuition is not magical. It is pattern recognition drawn from deep memory networks.
  • Strength: Fast, often accurate in familiar domains
  • Weakness: Vulnerable to bias and illusion 

3. Authority and Testimony

  • Much of what we “know,” we learn from parents, teachers, experts, institutions, books, and cultural memory.
  • This is a necessary approach. You cannot personally verify every fact.
  • Example: Graduating from a prestigious university with good grades will lead to career success and happiness.
  • Strength: Efficient, practical, collective intelligence
  • Weakness: Vulnerable to misinformation and trust failures 

4. Historical/Documentary Analysis

  • ·Used for one-time events, human behavior, social movements, crime investigation, and evolution of ideas.
  • Methods include evaluating sources, cross-corroboration, forensic evidence, and eyewitness analysis.
  • Example: Science can describe volcanic ash, but not what Julius Caesar said on his last day. That requires historical reasoning.
  • Strength: Reveals truths science cannot test
  • Weakness: Incomplete records, subjective interpretation 

5. Moral and Ethical Reasoning

  • Not based on experiments but on principles, values, consequences (utilitarianism), duties (deontology), virtues, and social contracts
  • You cannot scientifically prove human rights, justice, equality, and fairness. These are philosophical constructs.
  • Strength: Foundational for law, society, and civilization
  • Weakness: Different cultures reason differently 

6. Personal Experience and Phenomenology

  • These are truths derived from observation of one's consciousness, introspection, subjective experiences, emotions, and "What it's like" to be in pain, in love, grieving, etc.
  • Science can correlate brain activity with experience but not replace the experience.
  • Strength: Reveals truths invisible to external measurement.
  • Weakness: Inherently private, subjective, and prone to distortion 


Humans need multiple methods of determining truth because each method uncovers a different type of truth. No single method covers the entire map of human understanding. This matters because humans get into trouble when they:

  • Use the wrong method for the question
  • Treat moral claims as scientific claims
  • Treat scientific findings as moral truths
  • Treat intuition as infallible
  • Treat authority as unquestionable
  • Treat subjective feelings as objective facts

Understanding which tool is appropriate is a core skill in becoming a wiser human.

A model for belief testing

Behavioral experiments are an excellent way to find out the truth about our beliefs about ourselves, other people, and the world around us. We all have ‘models’ in our minds of how the world works. They are the unique results of our history, experiences, beliefs, and assumptions. These are biases that can lead or mislead our actions. Once they’ve formed, they tend to be ‘sticky’ and hard to alter. Take, for example, the person whose parents were always critical of them. The internalized self-image of inferiority can linger for their entire life.

Here is a Seven-Step Behavioral Experiment you can use to test certain beliefs:

  1. Identify the belief to be tested. 
    • Example: If I make eye contact with people, I’ll be attacked.
  2. Rate the strength of the belief. 
    • Rate it from 0% (not at all) to 100% (completely with all your heart)
  3. Plan an experiment that could test the belief. 
    • When you believe that if you do X, then Y will happen… do X and see what happens.
  4. Identify any obstacles that could make it difficult (or unsafe) to carry out the experiment. 
    • Get help from a friend when appropriate.
  5. Carry out the experiment. 
    • This step will likely require courage. Remind yourself why you are doing this.
  6. Record the results. 
  7. Reflect on the results and re-rate your confidence in your original belief.

Intellectual Humility

Intellectual humility, characterized by an awareness of one’s cognitive limitations and openness to revising beliefs, plays a pivotal role in various aspects of human life. This quality encompasses being open-minded, curious, realistic, and teachable, facilitating progress and personal growth. It fosters tolerance for diverse viewpoints and bolsters relationships by promoting respectful dialogue. Moreover, intellectual humility provides individuals with a more accurate self-perception and the capacity to adapt to change, ultimately leading to a more authentic and enriched existence.

Intellectual humility is not only about religious beliefs; it can show up in political views, social attitudes, areas of knowledge or expertise, and other strong convictions. It has both internal and external-facing dimensions. Within yourself, intellectual humility involves awareness and ownership of the limitations and biases in what you know and how you know it. It requires a willingness to revise your views in light of strong evidence. Interpersonally, it means keeping your ego in check so you can present your ideas in a modest and respectful manner. It calls for presenting your beliefs in non-defensive ways and admitting when you are wrong. It involves showing that you care more about learning and preserving relationships than about being “right” or demonstrating intellectual superiority.

Intellectually humble people are more accepting of people who hold differing religious and political views. A central part of it is an openness to new ideas, so folks are less defensive about potentially challenging perspectives. They’re more likely to forgive, which can help repair and maintain relationships.

Intellectual humility isn’t lacking conviction; you can believe something strongly until your mind is changed and you believe something else. It also isn’t being wishy-washy. You should have a high bar for what evidence you require to change your mind. It also doesn’t mean always agreeing with others. It’s being the right size, not too small (which is self-deprecation) or, for that matter, too big (which is arrogance).

Intellectual humility is often hard work, especially when the stakes are high. Nonetheless, the results are worth the effort. In our success, we can feel well-deserved pride. The alternative is hubris.

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